The twelve days between November 27 and December 8, 2024, witnessed unexpected and dramatic developments, neither foreseen nor desired by most Syrians. These events marked the end of a tyranny that began with the military coup on March 8, 1963, and intensified after Hafez al-Assad’s ascent to power in November 1970. The situation further deteriorated when Hafez passed the reins of power to his inept son, Bashar al-Assad, in July 2000.
The Assad regime has finally fallen, fulfilling the long-awaited dream of freedom first articulated by Syrians in March 2011. Many now hope that tyranny—regardless of its form, name, or guise, whether nationalist, religious, or revolutionary—has been permanently eradicated. With the end of this oppression, Syria’s path to the future has reopened after years of stagnation and despair.
The rapid collapse of the Assad regime revealed the fragility of its forces, which consistently proved incapable of sustained confrontation. As opposition forces advanced from northwestern Syria to Aleppo, and then to Hama, Homs, and Damascus in a mere twelve days, regime troops surrendered and deserted en masse. This unravelling exposed the regime’s heavy reliance on Russian and Iranian support, which had recently been severed due to various factors, precipitating its unexpectedly swift downfall. The speed of the regime’s collapse minimized the scale of battles and casualties, allowing Syrians to achieve their liberation independently, without the foreign military interventions witnessed in Iraq and Libya.
Syria now stands on the cusp of a transformative new phase, with multiple potential paths and outcomes. However, the country faces a host of daunting challenges that demand collective wisdom, sustained effort, and collaboration among all Syrians to address and overcome.
While it is premature to make definitive assessments or judgments, and unwise to succumb to pessimism during such a historic moment, it is nonetheless critical to consider the possibilities and risks that lie ahead. Syrians must envision their collective future with prudence and foresight. Such an approach serves not only the immediate needs of the people but also the long-term interests of the nation. Providing thoughtful insights into Syria’s current priorities and the imperatives facing the new leadership is essential. This is, after all, the future of a country that has endured decades of systemic oppression and institutional decay.
Amid the well-deserved celebratory atmosphere, the nation remains in a state of uncertainty, necessitating careful planning, visionary leadership, and a commitment to rebuilding a just and stable society.
Initial Actions of the New Authority:
A promising initial development has been the responsible and measured approach, free from acts of revenge or retaliation, demonstrated by the Deterrence of Aggression forces in their takeover of major Syrian cities, including Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Damascus, and Latakia. Their emphasis on achieving stability, ensuring security, and preventing chaos—despite some violations that highlight the need for improved oversight—has reassured the population and garnered public trust. Key measures implemented by these forces included safeguarding state institutions, protecting public and private property, restoring essential services, reopening institutions and markets, releasing tens of thousands of detainees from prisons, and outlining plans to remove armed factions from urban centres. Security within cities and towns was entrusted to the police, who were directed to prioritize anti-corruption efforts. Additionally, commitments were made to resolve the electricity crisis within a month, while Ahmad al-Sharaa alluded to the potential dissolution of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.
However, the actions of certain members of National Army factions within the Dawn of Freedom Operations Room—particularly violations against individuals and property, as well as exploitative practices—have attracted widespread criticism. These incidents underscore the urgent need for stricter oversight and accountability mechanisms.
The new de facto authority, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly known by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani), has yet to take clear and decisive steps to outline its strategic direction. While his public statements and speeches have been largely reassuring, concerns persist regarding the extent to which Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham continues to influence the trajectory of governance. Al-Sharaa, previously recognized as Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, was the leader of an organization formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, which had pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda following its split from the Islamic State in Iraq. The military factions constituting the Deterrence of Aggression Operations Room are predominantly Salafi-jihadist, and the governance model established in Idlib exhibits characteristics reminiscent of an Islamic emirate, with leadership figures closely aligned with such an ideological framework.
On the day of the regime’s collapse (Sunday, December 8, 2024), Ahmad al-Sharaa delivered his inaugural address from the Umayyad Mosque, rather than a location symbolizing Syria’s diverse population. His dedication of “this victory” to the Islamic nation, rather than specifically acknowledging the Syrian people or honouring the mothers of the revolution’s martyrs, has led some to question his ability to move beyond the identity of Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. Nonetheless, there are indications of a potential shift, such as his invitation for the “great Syrian people” to collectively celebrate the regime’s fall on Friday, December 13.
Efforts to provide reassurance are generally positive and have been well-received. However, legal and constitutional rights offer a far more robust guarantee of security than reassurances extended by a political party to its prospective supporters. These rights must be upheld universally and respected by governing authorities.
Ahmad al-Sharaa has expanded the powers of the Salvation Government in Idlib, effectively transforming it into a governing body for all of Syria—one dominated by a single political faction, with little to no involvement from other groups. This raises a critical question: will the Idlib model serve as the blueprint for Syria’s governance? Thus far, al-Sharaa has made decisions unilaterally, a course of action that could be justified by the immediate need to address the power vacuum, restore security, and stabilize the nascent authority. Moreover, meeting basic needs and improving essential services are crucial for building trust among Syrians.
One key issue remains unresolved: is the Salvation Government merely a temporary caretaker entity until a broader transitional government is established, or is it intended to function as the transitional government until elections take place? On December 11, al-Sharaa announced plans to form a government of technocrats, intended to draw on the diverse expertise of the Syrian population. While this is a more inclusive approach compared to governance dominated by a single faction, technocracy alone cannot substitute for genuine representation.
To date, al-Sharaa has not presented a comprehensive program or addressed the formation of a transitional representative body that reflects the full diversity of Syrian society.
The Syrian people have articulated clear principles that should guide any new leadership in Syria following the fall of Assad’s regime. Their chants of “Freedom… Freedom… Freedom” reflect a demand for public liberties, including the rights to organize, express opinions, and establish a democratic political system. Similarly, their slogan, “One… One… One… The Syrian people are one,” underscores a call for equal citizenship for all Syrians, rejecting fixed divisions between minorities and majorities based on birth. In this vision, all Syrians are considered equal, with the notions of minority and majority defined by political representation rather than religious or sectarian affiliations.
To realize this vision, it is imperative to establish mechanisms that embrace Syria’s diversity, ensuring that no citizen is excluded from participation due to ethnicity, region, religion, or sect. After the immense sacrifices they have endured, the Syrian people deserve a governance system grounded in rights and public freedoms—one that empowers them to govern themselves. Revolutionary forces and factions must strive to align their actions and objectives with the aspirations of the people.
The victory of December 8, 2024, represents the culmination of decades of struggle by activists who have resisted the tyranny of the Baath-Assad regime, enduring immense sacrifices since 1963. While the Deterrence of Aggression Room and the Dawn of Freedom Room deserve significant recognition for preparing, organizing, and delivering the final blow to the Assad regime, millions of Syrians played an equally critical role in achieving this long-awaited outcome. Their contributions began with the mass protests of 2011, when millions courageously took to the streets, defying bullets to demand the regime’s downfall.
As the regime’s violence intensified, many Syrians were compelled to take up arms in response to the widespread bloodshed. The toll of this protracted conflict is staggering, over half a million lives lost, nearly two million wounded, hundreds of thousands detained or forcibly disappeared, and approximately 13 million displaced internally or living as refugees abroad. Today, the people of Syria collectively aspire to a future where the new authority grants them genuine representation and the right to participate in shaping their country’s destiny.
A Range of Challenges Ahead:
Syria faces profound challenges both today and, in the future, particularly concerning material and societal reconstruction, which can only be achieved through the collective participation of all stakeholders. The foremost priority is restoring the unity of Syrian territory, ensuring security and stability, and disbanding armed organizations operating outside the state’s authority, while maintaining the state’s exclusive control over legitimate weaponry. This effort necessitates safeguarding Syria’s unity and territorial integrity and reaching a consensus on the withdrawal of American forces from eastern and northern regions of the country.
In addition, the physical reconstruction of the war-ravaged nation must commence, addressing the extensive destruction caused by over a decade of conflict. Equally critical is tackling the burdensome legacy of the Assad regime, which spans more than four decades. Societal reconstruction remains a pressing need, as the war has profoundly deepened divisions within Syrian society. This requires the implementation of transitional justice mechanisms, holding major war criminals accountable, and fostering reconciliation with those willing to engage in rebuilding the nation’s social fabric.
The transitional authorities face the challenge of restructuring, rather than dissolving, the national army, as was done in Iraq. Additionally, they must address the large number of fighters, including members of the regime’s army, opposition factions within the Deterrence of Aggression Room and the Dawn of Freedom Room, as well as fighters from the SDF and others. Unless these individuals are integrated into jobs and businesses that offer stable income, they are unlikely to surrender their weapons.
Rebuilding state institutions and restoring daily life to Syrian society presents another significant challenge. This involves securing essential resources such as water, food, medicine, and electricity, as well as reopening schools and universities and ensuring the functioning of transportation and communication systems. Fortunately, the transitional authorities are not starting from scratch. Existing institutions, along with Syrian expertise and capabilities, can be mobilized to support national efforts, provided that a sense of freedom and a shared commitment to serving the homeland can be cultivated.
Reconstruction funding is estimated to exceed one hundred billion dollars, nearly all of which is unavailable in the Syrian state treasury, having been squandered by Assad and his regime. Securing the necessary funds for reconstruction, which is expected to take over a decade, will require gaining the trust of Syrians both at home and abroad. This includes attracting Syrian businessmen and some friendly countries to contribute, building new regional relationships, gaining recognition and trust from the international community (especially from GCC countries), lifting sanctions, and ensuring the provision of aid.
Confronting these numerous challenges requires broad Syrian participation, strong relations with Arab and regional countries, cooperation with international leaders, and a legitimate authority with a comprehensive program.
Syria, facing these monumental challenges, requires the participation of all Syrians to overcome them and rebuild the country. This necessitates an environment of public freedoms, including freedom of expression, association, and belief, as well as the values of equal citizenship and human rights. It also demands a pluralistic system based on the peaceful transfer of power through modern democratic elections. These elections must occur at the appropriate time, without haste, and in accordance with the declared program of the new authority, which has assumed power due to the de facto status quo.
Establishing an Authority with Legitimate Power and a Clear Program
Transparency and legitimacy are essential for building trust in the new authority, while ambiguity fosters doubt and uncertainty. The new authority has yet to announce its decision-making processes or the bodies and institutions responsible for issuing decisions.
On the other hand, the new authority has an international legal foundation that can provide it with legitimacy, based on Resolution 2254, which the previous regime effectively refused to accept. Now in control of Syria, the new authority can affirm its commitment to the resolution, which emphasizes Syria’s unity, independence, territorial integrity, and non-sectarian nature. It calls for a political transition led by Syrians, with a process owned by them. This includes the establishment of a fully empowered transitional governing body, a credible and inclusive rule that rejects sectarianism, the drafting of a new constitution, and the holding of free and fair elections within 18 months under UN supervision. These elections must meet the highest international standards of transparency and accountability, include all Syrians, including those in exile, and create conditions for the safe and voluntary return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their areas of origin. The resolution also stresses the rehabilitation of affected areas in accordance with international law and urges member states to provide assistance.
While we do not suggest that the Syrian authorities must fully implement the agreement—since the former regime is no longer a party and international mediators are no longer necessary—the transitional authorities can rely on and adhere to the spirit of the resolution, especially regarding the establishment of a non-sectarian, credible transitional governing body and the drafting of a new constitution that guarantees the rights and freedoms of all Syrians.
Building on this foundation, the new authority in Syria has the opportunity to proactively announce its program, which has yet to be disclosed, in a way that reassures both Syrians and the broader Arab, regional, and international communities. The program should include the following key elements:
- Convening a national conference, with representatives selected by consensus, to ensure broad representation of Syrian society’s various sectors.
- Establishing a national assembly tasked with issuing a temporary constitutional declaration that reaffirms Syria’s unity, independence, and commitment to its cultural, ethnic, and religious diversity. The declaration should emphasize the state’s civil and democratic nature, the peaceful transfer of power, the rule of law, equality, and adherence to international human rights standards.
- Creating a military council that incorporates opposition factions, ensures their full dissolution, and includes defected officers and members of the regime’s army who are not implicated in atrocities against Syrians.
- Forming an interim transitional government in consultation with both domestic and international political forces to exercise executive authority until a new constitution is enacted.
- Drafting a new constitution that will be put to a national referendum, aligning the legitimacy of the revolution with international legitimacy.
- Developing an election law, establishing an election commission, and creating laws governing political parties, trade unions, and associations.
- Calling for elections, preparing the necessary conditions for them, and ensuring their security by inviting international organizations to oversee the process.
- Ensuring the preservation of existing national institutions and establishing independent oversight mechanisms to safeguard civil and political rights.
- Forming a reconstruction council and initiating a transitional justice process, including the establishment of a specialized body for this purpose.
- Creating a supreme judicial council and courts, staffed with judges known for their integrity and impartiality.
- Developing a plan to compensate victims, uncover the fate of the missing, and annul the numerous arbitrary laws, legislations, and rulings issued by the previous regime over the past 60 years.
At this stage, there are critical economic tasks and challenges that must be addressed. The Central Bank of Syria must promptly announce a monetary policy that designates the Syrian pound as the standard currency across all regions, including Idlib and northern Syria, which previously used the Turkish lira. All government banks should resume operations, and a clear set of principles for monetary policy, including a tradable exchange rate, must be declared, distinct from the policies of the Assad regime. Efforts should begin by paying employees’ salaries in Syrian pounds to promote stability.
Additionally, negotiations with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) should occur within a national framework that ensures respect for Syria’s unity and sovereignty, while developing a local administration model that honours cultural diversity and prevents separatist tendencies. Coordination with neighbouring countries and host nations is essential to facilitate the voluntary and safe return of Syrian refugees. A program should be developed to relaunch the national economy and attract Syrian investors, industrialists, and traders who left the country in recent years, encouraging them to return and contribute to Syria’s reconstruction.
Ongoing humanitarian support for affected areas must continue, and a comprehensive reconstruction program should be established. Furthermore, efforts should be made to engage Syrian immigrants from the diaspora in rebuilding the new Syria.
Changes in Syria will not be limited to the local level; they will also reshape regional dynamics. While the future of Syria presents significant challenges, overcoming them is possible with political will and strategic planning. The success of achieving stability and international recognition will depend on the new leadership’s ability to unify national efforts and collaborate with regional and international partners. This cooperation is essential for ensuring a successful transitional phase that fulfils the aspirations of the Syrian people for freedom, justice, and development.
The key to moving forward lies in the effectiveness of the people and civil society, including political parties, unions, associations, and leagues, as well as the promotion of democratic culture and awareness. The availability of public freedoms, such as freedom of expression and organization, is the measure that ensures the return of guardianship over the people is prevented and that legitimacy is derived from the people. Assad’s tyranny is over, and Syrians are determined to eliminate tyranny in all its forms, regardless of the slogans or labels used to justify it. The authority must represent the people and uphold public rights and freedoms. A climate of public freedoms and a strong civil society will empower Syrian society to achieve both material and spiritual prosperity, driving progress and development.
